Price development and Annual inflation likely decelerated in December; we expect CPI inflation to dip a notch from 4.9% in November to 4.8% in December. Likewise, harmonised inflation, which does not include imputed rents (equivalent of homeowners' rent), should decline to 3.8% in December according to our estimate. Structure-wise, we will likely see another increase in prices of tobacco, and possibly seasonal increase in food. On the other hand, prices of fuel declined by around 9% m/m in

Headlines Weaker greenback returns gold back to 860$/oz level Bleak economic outlook sends base metals down

EURUSD has been limited by the resistance line 1.3768 and just sustained gains above that line could spell a positive move up. But for now still remains a danger to see price around 1.3054. Which way EURUSD will decide to go no one knows, but selling is better option.

-------------------------------------------- USD/JPY Update Time:09 Jan 2009 06:36 GMT Range Forecast 91.10 / 91.40 Resistance/Support R: 91.59/ 92.04/ 92.33 S: 90.83/ 90.02/ 89.75 -------------------------------------------- EUR/USD Update Time:09 Jan 2009 07:52 GMT Range Forecast 1.3630 / 1.3680 Resistance/Support R: 1.3718/1.3739/1.3801 S: 1.3630/1.3610/1.3534 --------------------------------------------- USD/CHF Update Time:09 Jan 2009 08:34 GMT Range Forecast 1.0930 / 1.0970

INTRA-DAY GBP/USD OUTLOOK : 1.5195 Updating time : 09 Jan 2009 08:53 GMT Although current retreat suggests an intra-day top is possibly formed at 1.5275 n consolidation with mild downside bias is seen, break of 1.5166 sup is needed to signal another corrective decline fm y'day's 1.5374 high is under way to 1.5124. Stand aside n look to turn short on recovery as upside shud be ltd to 1.5250 n said res wud hold... Range Forecast 1.5180 / 1.5220 Resistance/Support R: 1.5275/1.5374/1.5422 S:

INTRA-DAY AUD/USD OUTLOOK :       0.7080 Updating time : 09 Jan 2009 07:52 GMT Although aussie's rebound fm Asian low of 0.7054 suggests consolidation with mild upside bias is seen, abv 0.7124/33 needed to signal correction fm 0.7270 has ended at 0.6958 y'day n yield subsequent gain twd 0.7179 b4 prospect of a retreat. Below 0.7054 wud bring weakness twd 0.7012 but 0.6990/00 shud hold fm here. Stand aside... Range Forecast 0.7060 / 0.7100 Resistance/Support R:

Market overview The past month has seen some exceptional moves in the FX markets and although we are only in the first few days of 2009, the volatility continues unabated. Two major underlying themes that continue to build are the prospect for a base in equities (whether this is long term is open to debate) and the gradual reversal of commodities. Whilst a month ago, commodity buying was limited to gold and selective softs (and a bullish view met with derision), it has since broadened to base

But let's see how long it lasts... MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION US Initial Jobless Claims 467k vs 545k expected US Continuing Jobless Claims 4.61m vs 4.48 expected South Korea cuts interest rates 50bp to 2.5%, as expected China Q4 business confidence slumps THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION Events Today: GE Retail Sales (Nov)(0700) UK Input/Output Prices (Dec) (0930) UK Industrial/Manufacturing Output (Nov) (0930) EU Retail Sales (Nov) (1000) GE Industrial Production(Nov) (1100) CA

Action Insight Daily Report All Eyes on Non-Farm Payroll Focus of the day is US non-farm payroll in December which is anticipated to have reduced by -550K (November: -533K) with severe drop in manufacturing and business services sectors. Although initial jobless claims reported yesterday fell 25K to 467K after a decline of 98K in the week before, it's probably skewed by holiday season. However, other indicators such as continuing claims and December's ADP employment released Wednesday (job

Quote: ‘The garden that is finished, is dead.’ H. E. Bates (1905-1974) The News: Berlin government pays €10B for a 25% stake in Commerzbank, first major bank partial nationalisation. The Numbers: Greenwich Mean Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets. 05:00 JP November Leading Economic Indicator 81.5, Coincident 94.9, versus 85.2 and 97.7 October. 07:00 DE November Retail Sales +0.7% M/M, -3.0% Y/Y, versus revised –2.2% and –0.8% October. 08:00 EZ16 ECB’s Trichet speaks on a

EUR Comment: Still trying to base against the top of a massive Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and note that the Lagging Span also has ‘cloud’ support. It is just a question of time before we see a sustained break above the 9-day moving average at 1.3765 which will probably trigger some short-covering allowing the Euro to sneak back up to 1.4100. Strategy: Buy at 1.3675, adding to 1.3550; stop below 1.3400. Add to longs above 1.3850 for 1.4000. EUR/JPY Comment: Edging a tiny bit lower but still in the middle

EURUSD Upside is under pressure as the Euro has reached a higher high on yesterday, climbing towards first important resistance level at 1.3840. A sustained break above the said barrier will most likely trigger some short-covering, pushing towards the 1.4 mark for a later test. Minor support is now seen at 1.3630 backed by 1.3550. Daily sentiment is bearish while the intra-day studies are neutral at the time of this writing. Large moves are possible today due to the NFP data release in the

--------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time:     08 Jan 2009 14:07GMT INTRA-DAY USD/CHF OUTLOOK - +1.0875+ Dlr's breach of 1.0962 sup confirms rebound fm y'day's 1.0870 has formed at top at 1.1084 earlier n consolidation with downside bias remains for weak ness to 1.0870, however, reckon 1.0830/40 wud hold n yield rebound later. Turn short on recovery with stop as indicated, break wud bring another bounce to 1.1050 ...   

European Session EUR/USD - Euro Dollar 1,3671. EUR USD is in a range between 1,3540 and 1,3770. EUR USD moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are tightened. Oscillators are neutral. The price should continue to move in Bollinger bands. We won't take a position. Resistances 1,3770 - 1,3850 Supports 1,3635 - 1,3540 more information on EUR/USD - Euro Dollar Click Here GBP/USD - British Pound Dollar 1,5223. GBP

Pair has approached 61.8% of rise from low to 1.4719 (1.3243). Still below 1.3822 and in Flag off 1.4719 (see graph): Support area at 1.3629 (broken daily Short Term Moving Average↓), with next levels at 1.3532 (break-up hourly + daily envelope bottom + reaction low hourly), ahead of 1.3500 (daily Long Term Moving Average↑): tough on 1st attempts. If wrong, next levels at 1.3488/ .3461 (daily Bollinger bottom/ reaction low hourly), where pause favored. Resistance at 1.3721 (today’s high?),

For those that like to live on the edge, the technical draw of USDJPY’s range presents the market with a very clear setup for a short-term play. However, the risk is extremely high as the very attractive technical formation precedes one of the most market-moving indicators the dollar has to offer: non-farm payrolls (NFPs). Why Would USDJPY Hold Its Range? Levels to Watch: -Range Top: 94.60 (Fib, Pivot) -Range Bottom: 90.85 (Trend, Fib, Pivot, SMA) USDJPY will be the epicenter for risk during

The US Dollar showed some life in Asia as it made some modest gains against the Euro, which earlier in the US skyrocketed to highs just short of 1.3800. As Asia began trading the EUR/USD pair was near 1.3719, and subsequently lost ground as the session progressed. The pair hit a low of 1.3631 before leveling out near 1.3650. Today the Dollar looked good versus the Pound and Swissy as well. The UK cut rates as expected last night by 0.50% and the GBP/USD pair rose on the data, today however saw